![]() | submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments] 2019 \"Index Fund\" EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 - Feb 2020/Month Fourteen Update - Up 47% Full blog post with all the tables tl;dr - ETH only crypto in the green, BSV worst performer in February. BSV still has a commanding lead and Stellar remains at the bottoms since the experiment started in January 2019. Month Fourteen – UP 47%After a January which saw green across the board, the 2019 Top Ten cooled off significantly. With the exception of ETH, the entire group finished down in February.Ranking and February Winners and LosersTwo up, two down this month. Both Stellar and Tether climbed one spot and BSV and Tron both fell in February – one spot to #6 for BSV and two spots to #15 for Tron.Stellar and Tron remain the only two cryptos to have dropped out of the 2019 Top Ten. They have been replaced by Binance Coin and Cardano. If we compare to the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, four cryptos had already dropped out by the 14 month mark. February Winners – Ethereum alone finished in positive territory, ending the month up an impressive +21%. February Losers – BSV and Litecoin finished the month in a virtual tie, both down -17%. But since it also lost one place in the rankings, I’ll go ahead and give BSV the loss. Close behind was Bitcoin Cash, down -16% in February. For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first fourteen months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: Tether is still in the lead followed by BSV in second place. BSV also holds the most monthly losses, finishing last in five out of fourteen months. Overall update – BSV in overall lead. Stellar worst performer, down -50%.BSV lost a bit of ground to Bitcoin this month, but still is holding on to the lead it opened up in January. It is up +144% since January 2019 compared to second place BTC, up +127%. Bitcoin Cash follows in third place, up +92%. My initial $100 investment in BSV is now worth $246.While 40% of the 2019 Top Ten Cryptos were up over the +100% mark last month, this month it’s only BSV and Bitcoin. Still, seven out of the ten cryptos in this group have either broke even or are solidly in the green. Stellar remains firmly at the bottom, down -50% after the first 14 months. XRP is the second worst performer, down -36%. Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:Not that bad of a month, at least not for those who have been following crypto for a while. The market did lose about $12B in February, but overall the crypto market is up +92% since the 2019 Top Ten Experiment began in January 2019.Bitcoin dominance:Bitcoin dominance dipped a few more percentage points in February, finishing the month at 64%. The last time BTC dominance was this low was in July 2019. The range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio lost about $160 in February. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is worth $1,472, up about +47%.Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first fourteen months of the experiment, month by month: As you can see, every month except the first month (January 2019) is green. At the lowest point, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio was down -9%, at the highest point, up +114% (May 2019). How does the 2019 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $3,170. That’s up about +5.6%. Implications/Observations:While the crypto market as a whole is up +92% since January 2019, the 2019 Top Ten cryptos have gained just +47%.This is reminiscent of the 2018 group as at no point in the first twenty-six months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the market in the 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And the first couple of 2020 Experiment updates show that focusing on the Top Ten is a winning strategy, at least in the first two months of 2020. I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 took a coronavirus beating in February, but is still up +18% since the January 2019. The 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning +47% over the same time period. So, the initial $1k investment I put into crypto would now be worth $1180 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019. But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging/$1,000-per-year-in-January approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,200. That’s up about +6.7% compared to +5.6% with the Top Ten Crypto Experiments, the narrowest gap since I started the updates in January 2018. Conclusion:While Coronavirus is tanking world markets, crypto followers shrug – we’re used to seeing this kind of movement. I guess one of the perks of following such a volatile asset class?Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the recently launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment. |
![]() | submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments] 2018 \"Index Fund\" EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2018 - Feb 2020/Month Twenty-Six Update - Down 81% Note: the snapshot was taken on the 1st of March, so does not include the current COVID craziness. Stay tuned for next month's updates to see the result of the current crypto nose dive and how it compares to the current stock market nose dive. Stay safe, wash your hands, take care of each other. See the full blog post with all the tables here. Month Twenty-Six – Down 81%After a strong start to 2020, February saw a bit of a pullback with nearly every 2018 Top Ten crypto ending in the red. Ethereum is the notable exception, gaining +21% for the month.Ranking and February Winners and LosersA mixed month in terms of movement for this group of cryptos. NEM and Stellar made positive moves while Cardano and IOTA, fell two and four positions, respectively. Dash gave up some of the ground it made in January when it jumped an unprecedented 10 slots, but this month it fell from #16 back to #20.For overall drop out rate, we’re back at the 50% mark: half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV. February Winners – Ethereum easily outperformed the field this month with a +21% gain. NEM finished in second place, up +4%. February Losers – All the other cryptos ended the month in the red. IOTA picks up the L this month, losing -28% of its value followed closely by Dash which finished down -27%. For nerds): here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses in the first 26 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Most monthly wins (6): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020), when it gained “only” +31%). Overall update – BTC far ahead, ETH takes second place from LTC, IOTA and NEM worst performingNo news here: Bitcoin is still well ahead of the field. Although down -35% since the beginning of 2018, BTC is still returning roughly double of the next crypto down, Ethereum – which, thanks to a strong February, has overtaken Litecoin for second place.While NEM remains at the bottom, IOTA is dropping quickly. They are down -95% and -94% respectively. Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:The overall crypto market lost about $12B in February 2020, a non-event in the crypto world. Since January 2018, the total market cap is down about -57%.Bitcoin dominance:Bitcoin dominance ticked down another two points to 64% in February 2020. The last time BitDom was this low was back in July 2019. The range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost about $16 bucks in February 2020. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $186, down -81% from January 2018.Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month: As you can see, nothing but red. The closest the 2018 Top Ten group has come to breaking even was after the very first month, when the portfolio was down -20%. It has been at the at least -80% loss level for the past seven months in a row. The 2019 Top Ten Experiment and the just launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment are both doing much better:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $3,170. That’s up about +5.6%. Implications/Observations:As always, the experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -57% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -81% over the same period. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos.At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-six months compared to the market overall. There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. And the first two months of the 2020 Experiment show that focusing on the Top Ten is a winning strategy. I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a rough coronavirus fueled week, the S&P 500 has lost a lot of ground. It is currently up only +11% since the beginning of 2018. The initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$110 had it been redirected to the S&P. Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,200. That’s up about +6.7% compared to +5.6% with the Top Ten Crypto Experiments. That’s getting pretty close now, eh? While this month’s update/snapshot is greatly influenced by the coronavirus stock market correction, a difference of only 1% is definitely worth noting. Conclusion:Not a great month for crypto, but not a horrible one, especially if you compare to the free fall in the stock market. Depending on how the coronavirus influences both traditional and crypto markets, we could be in for an interesting few months.Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020. |
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I have been in crypto technically for 2+ years but, since last spring gotten very into it. Here is my opinion on a bunch of coins. I know I don't know everything about crypto, but I also know nobody (except maybe Satoshi) can say for sure how this will play out. Here's my analysis(half-assed bullshit guesses). Yea I'm very bullish.
BTC The king. I think it has the best likelihood of mass adoption. Wales want to see liquidity before they jump in. But more importantly they want to see big marketcap. They don't want to be a huge % of a market and not be able to pull out if it drops. I think there will be a tipping point in the near future where all of a sudden major financial companies start to pour in investments and millionares/billionares dump tons of money in. Wales are what takes us to 50-100k per coin. Also at a critical mass of marketcap the stigma of "betting on bitcoin" will turn to "putting it in bitcoin". Still too early to call a winner, but once they dive in it might be too late for other coins to top it. The tech that is massively adopted is not always the best. Yea there are fees, but it is still better than a wire transfer.
Jan 1 2018: 12050 April 1 2018: 16800
ETH Very strong. Accurately valued imo. I think it might go down a bit in the next year or so to 280 and stay, but I also think it will only take a few very successful Dapps for it to explode. Good leader too. I think the move to POS is great and I think the people behind it are very dedicated and pumped.
Jan 1 2018: 310 April 1 2018: 750
LTC- solid coin. Stability and a good leader. It could become the silver to the gold. I see it continuing to be very high volume.
Jan 1 2018: 72 April 1 2018: 105
BCC- No idea.
XRP- maybe great for a short term gain but I see major problems for it long term. I know a lot of people here don't like it because they think it's centralized but that's not why I don't like it. To me the problem is that for the "product" they offer to banks they can easily face competition and lose. There are already other coins that do similar things.
Jan 1 2018: .23 April 1 2018: .40
NEM Cool idea. I really like their coin and PoI. I think this coin has a chance of being massively adopted. The only problem is that they don't market much and don't get hype going. If they saw another big 20% burst I think they would snowball and more people would look up what they were about. They have small volume which isn't good, but I think it is because those who are in it see it as the best tech.
Jan 1 2018: .25 April 1 2018: .85
NEO Another coin that could be massively adopted. I don't see it going down too much anytime soon. After all the China FUD it only took a small hit and is still in the top 10. If China endorses it or has some kind of statement that can be interpreted as pro NEO I think it will explode. I like their model and how gas works with the POS. You can't go wrong with this one.
Jan 1 2018: 42 April 1 2018: 115
DASH- PIVX is better in EVERY way.
IOTA- I think many can agree that this is the biggest question mark. I think it is the riskiest coin, but also potentially could see the most incredible gains. If the ball starts rolling with this and if they every get to the point where they can remove the coordinator I think it's lights out. GG. The question imo is can they get to that point while still being relevant and while people still believe in them. They have to get many people using the coin before they can get to that point.
Jan 1 2018: .62 April 1 2018: 1.8
XMR (monero) Awesome coin. Honestly I think this the safest bet. It has one of the most passionate communities and a good visible leader who understands his role is replaceable. The fungibility factor is SOOOOOO under valued and I wish more coins took this part more seriously. I like that there is no rich list. This coin seems to 2x all the time. The community has the "ask not what Monero can do for you but what you can do for Monero vibe"
Jan 1 2018: 195 April 1 2018: 405
QTUM, OMG, CARDANO all seem solid, but I haven't looked into them enough.
Bitconneeeeeeeeeeeect Not feelin it.
Jan 1 2018: 380 April 1 2018: .380
LISK- I think Lisk is awesome and will pop up to 12 by spring. JS is one of the most popular languages and its users are growing. At the end of the day it's the developer that makes widespread adoption. The easier it is for them to make apps for the block chain, the faster people can adopt it. DPOS imo is pretty cool. The people behind it seem really motivated and imo they have a cool logo and easy to remember name.
Jan 1 2018: 8.14 April 1 2018: 14.01
ARK I'm not gonna pretend to understand how smart bridges work, but I think they will go up. Their team seems professional and passionate and I like DPOS.
Jan 1 2018: 3.01 April 1 2018: 7.22
ZCASH Better off with XMR or PIVX. The tweet their boss gave was pretty telling. I have a bad vibe about them.
Stellar lumens IDK. Seems a lot like ripple
Jan 1 2018: .09 April 1 2018: .112
Stratis Better off with LISK or NEM imo
Jan 1 2018: 6.11 April 1 2018: 7.18
EOS I don't really understand this coin yet
MonaCoin Japan's coin. I think NEM is better because I like their POI and the fact they have been around longer. I don't think a coin can win off just strong patriotism/nationalism unless it is directly/officially endorsed by their gov't or issued (doubt that will happen)
Jan 1 2018: 4.42 April 1 2018: 6.44
PIVX Great coin. Their dev team sets targets and hits them. ZEROCOIN + super fast transactions are hard to beat. One of the most ideal coins with a community that's very passionate.
Jan 1 2018: 4.12 April 1 2018: 10.87
Decred One of the best long term coins. They have a good team and one of the smartest roadmaps. If crypto ever gets to maximal adoption you are basically talking about universal self governance and decred has a lot of foresight with their voting system. The down sides are that it's kinda complex and a lot to read though. New comers to crypto already have enough on their plate.
Jan 1 2018: 39.55 April 1 2018: 58.86
Steem Cool idea. I don't think its going away. At the same time I wouldn't buy this unless you like using the platform
Jan 1 2018: 1.02 April 1 2018: 3.31
Augur /Gnosis cool ideas. I see more competition coming for them. The draft kings and predictit markets are already huge. it's just a matter of showing the base how to use the platform
Jan 1 2018: 21.05 April 1 2018: 38.07 Jan 1 2018: 75.33 April 1 2018: 80.60
Binance I think this will pop up. Binance already has some of the lowest fees and BNB is functional already.
Jan 1 2018: 4.22 April 1 2018: 8.64
Vertcoin/Grostle I think people think because it's asic resistant it's more decentralized, but I think that's only is true in early stages. If it catches on people will figure how to rig many GPUs together and mine that way. I think they will be pumped and dumped again. I think they are the new DGB VTC: Jan 1 2018: 8.94 April 1 2018: 10.20
Populous/tenx Haven't looked into it enough but have heard good things
Salt I think Salt is a great. I think they might face more competition later, but if they can be stable and reliable, people will use their services and the price will keep going up.
Jan 1 2018: 5.44 April 1 2018: 10.91
Golem Big gamble. One coin that has tremendous upside(10x) but could also fade into obscurity. It faces a lot of competition but it seems like given it's niche function it has a strong following. The Devs for this I think are good. This is a very ambitious project. Who knows maybe 1 day a super AI will run on it.
Jan 1 2018: .34 April 1 2018: .81
Factom/Civic Great ideas. I really hope one of them becomes widely accepted/adopted. FCT
Jan 1 2018: 22.47 April 1 2018: 10.87
BAT Another great idea. I hope it does well. I like trying out new browsers
Sia/Storage I think these could moon but you will have to wait a while. I like Sia a bit better.
Sia > 1 dollar 2019
ZEN/VERG/ZCOIN Great on privacy. I'm not as big on POW and I think MONERO might have too much of a head start but these coins are unique. It's still early for any of them to become top dog
Byteballs cool Idea. I like IOTA better. Raiblocks might be better than both. but they are small and not on many exchanges. And as you can tell from the quality of this post I am too lazy to sign up for some new exchange right now.
Why so Bullish? You already know Where should ppl put money? Banks... almost no interest. If they raise interest rates they could crash the market. Either way $ will be printed in mass. Bonds..... terrible rates give me a break Stocks..... Market will probably go up but could crash any time. Not as liquid as crypto (I can't buy a computer with stock on robinhood). The whole point of stocks used to be owning a part of a company and having a say. That part of the value of a stock is long gone and dilluted with these mega corps and everyone just hopes for capital gains. We all know where to go for gains. gold/silver... maybe. Crypto... Sky is the limit. It will soak up all the money that people hide, new money from the young kids in tech sectors, old money who ...
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